UK expected to officially exit recession


Official figures to be released today are expected to show that the UK has officially exited from recession.

The data is expected to reveal that the country came out of recession in the final quarter of 2009 following six consecutive quarters of contraction.
Last week, it was revealed that unemployment in the UK fell for the first time in 18 months. Tax revenues have also started to recover.
Experts have predicted that the economy grew by 0.4 per cent in last yearÔÇÖs final quarter.
The UK will be the last of the major G7 economies to leave recession. Europe's two biggest economiesÔÇöGermany and FranceÔÇöofficially exited recession last summer.
Many economists were expecting the UK to have emerged from recession in the third quarter of 2009, and were surprised by the 0.4 per cent contraction first estimated by the Office for National Statistics, which was later revised up to a 0.2 per cent contraction.
The first estimate is made with only around 40 per cent of the data available, so there is still room for surprise today, according to analysts.
The UK recession began in the three months to June in 2008. Since then, the economy has contracted by a total of six per cent.
Over the same period, public borrowing ballooned to an estimated £178 billion.      
This exceeds the recession of the early 1990s; indeed, it signals the worst fall in output since the slump of June 1980.
TodayÔÇÖs data is expected to reflect a slow recovery among services firms, which account for more than two-thirds of the economy, as well as a recovery in the manufacturing industry. Manufacturers have been assisted by the UK Government's cash-for-bangers car scrappage scheme.
Last weekÔÇÖs retail sales figures for December were, however, disappointing in comparison.
There are still fears over a possible ÔÇÿdouble-dipÔÇÖ recession occurring, thanks to the prospect of spending cuts combined with the Bank of England moving interest rates up from their current record low.
Bank lending is also expected to remain weak for some time, as will the level of UK household debt.